SWODY2
SPC AC 081642
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NEWD FROM WY INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGING NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS ERN NEB/SD...WITH A COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY
DRAPED SWD INTO TX.
...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN AN EXTENSIVE N-S
ORIENTED BAND FROM TX NWD INTO SD. THIS WILL HAMPER HEATING
POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY...AND WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH SUCH
POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...HAIL IS
UNLIKELY. LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST FLOW
MAGNITUDES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ALSO SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS
PROBABILITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO
SUGGEST ROTATIONAL POTENTIAL...BUT WITH ONGOING RAIN AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS...THIS MAY MANIFEST AS BROADLY ROTATING DEEP CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
...FL...
A STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS FL AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THIS
FEATURE WILL AID IN BRINGING MOISTURE NWWD...WITH BANDS OF RAIN AND
STORMS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE STRONG IN THE LOW
LEVELS...CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK OWING TO POOR LAPSE
RATES PROFILES...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
..JEWELL.. 10/08/2011
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