Sunday, October 9, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091719
SWODY2
SPC AC 091718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2011

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS
PERIOD...WITH TROUGH PROGRESSION STILL IMPEDED BY THE STOUT ERN U.S.
RIDGE. A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH/LEAD TROUGH AXIS WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE WRN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PLAINS...AND THEN
APPROACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE. MEANWHILE...A WEAK/COMPACT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE PLAINS -- ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEAD PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH -- IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT
THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN A WEAK/DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR SERN
STATES...AS A MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO -- NEAR OR JUST OFF THE FL COAST.

...SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. WEAK WARM/MARINE FRONT NE OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO
SPREAD VERY SLOWLY WWD/WNWWD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/GA AND
ADJACENT N FL...WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR AND E OF THE
FRONT.

WHICH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
NEAR THE COAST AND PERHAPS JUST INLAND MAY POSE VERY LOW-END/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL. HERE...ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT MAY PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION -- WHICH SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 10/09/2011

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