SWODY2
SPC AC 230547
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A FAST-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY/NORTHEAST STATES NEAR
THE FRONT. HERE...A FEW STRONGER LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A
STEEP LAPSE RATE/WEAK BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...A FEW TSTMS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY VICINITY AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTENSIFIES.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED
MOISTENING/CAPPING PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF 10 PERCENT TSTM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME FOR AREAS SUCH AS IA AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MN/WI. OTHERWISE...A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE VICINITY IN
ADVANCE OF A MODESTLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..GUYER.. 10/23/2011
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