SWODY2
SPC AC 260543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PHASING OF SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES AND A
SOUTHEAST-DIGGING POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL GENERALLY PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH TX/ARKLATEX TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS.
WHILE SHOWERY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/BEHIND THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...EMBEDDED TSTM POTENTIAL IN/AROUND AREAS FROM OK/TX TO
THE ARKLATEX/TN VALLEY /AND PERHAPS THE APPALACHIANS/ IS EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY FOCUSED IN THE MORNING AND OF A LOW PROBABILITY/LIMITED
COVERAGE...AS THERMODYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS GENERALLY TREND LESS
FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS. NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THIS VERY
WEAK BUOYANCY/POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TX/LA COASTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BUT SCANT/VERY ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITHIN THE
POST-SURFACE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR
ANYTHING BEYOND A VERY SPORADIC TSTM COVERAGE. LASTLY...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION IN
VICINITY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT THIS SHOULD ALSO BE VERY
ISOLATED AND OF A NEGLIGIBLE PROBABILITY.
..GUYER.. 10/26/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment