SWODY2
SPC AC 101722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...NOW NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER FLOW...WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...NORTH OF AN EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTER. DOWNSTREAM...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMERGING FROM
THE JET ARE PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITHIN
BROADER-SCALE CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS LATTER REGIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INCLUDE A COUPLE OF IMPULSES COMPRISING LARGER-SCALE
TROUGHING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
...SOUTHEAST...
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR...
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES...WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY...AS A DRY
SLOT BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND WRAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER INLAND AREAS...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A LINGERING MOIST BAND AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION MAY REMAIN A
FOCUS FOR LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHERE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW /30-40+ KT AT 850 MB BY LATE
TUE EVE/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SUFFICIENT MOISTENING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS APPROACHING...OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING...SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR.. 10/10/2011
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