DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041725
SWODY2
SPC AC 041723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WRN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD...WITH A LEAD WAVE SHIFTING NEWD OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND INTO/ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH/LOW DIGS SSEWD ACROSS THE W COAST STATES.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD..BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COVER
THE ENTIRE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS.

FARTHER E...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER
FAR ERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...A SHARP RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN BETWEEN THE TWO
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE TROUGHS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO COVER THE
ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SW STATES AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE TROUGHING IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
FL INVOF THE WEAK/LINGERING SURFACE FRONT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS WWD. MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELL COULD EVOLVE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF NW TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN
HERE...INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES DESPITE SHEAR PROFILES OTHERWISE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION.

WHILE A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT -- RESULTING IN WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MORE THAN SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKE.

..GOSS.. 10/04/2011

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