SWODY3
SPC AC 020721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHERN PORTION EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...THE NORTHERN PORTION NORTHEAST OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...AS A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS
TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND A TROUGH TO ITS
EAST...ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE AMPLIFYING...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY
FROM COASTAL AREAS.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...WITH AN OCCLUDING SURFACE
FRONT ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. HOWEVER
...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES...WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. BUT...THIS IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
..KERR.. 10/02/2011
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