SWOD48
SPC AC 050810
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT WED OCT 05 2011
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
THE PERIOD COMMENCES WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE SPREAD AMONG GUIDANCE OVER
THE EVOLUTION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AT
12Z/SAT. THE GFS TRACKS THIS FEATURE ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC AND MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS HOLD THE
IMPULSE NEAR THE SRN ROCKIES BEFORE ACCELERATING IT NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY MON. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES...GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT THAT DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL WEAKEN ON SAT AND
THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE INNOCUOUS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD PERHAPS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH TSTMS LIKELY PERSISTING ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL AREA OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW.
..GRAMS/KERR.. 10/05/2011
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