SWOD48
SPC AC 160845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISPLAY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH STEADY PROGRESSION OF A LARGE/DEEPENING UPPER
VORTEX FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAY 5 /THU. OCT.
20/. A DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REGION IS PROGGED TO REACH NRN NY/SERN
ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 5...BUT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH DAY 6 AS IT CONTINUES NWD/NEWD ACROSS ERN CANADA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING VORTEX...A REMNANT/LOWER-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN
CONUS...WITH A ZONE OF FAST NWLY FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN STATES UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN MODEL
FORECASTS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
DEPENDING UPON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONT...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGION EARLY IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD /WED. OCT. 19/...AND
POSSIBLY NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW OCCLUDES. DEGREE OF
ANY THREAT HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF AN
OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS NWD DAY
5...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS E OF THE ROCKIES WILL PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 10/16/2011
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