SWOD48
SPC AC 220843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...AN INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE
UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO YIELD TO A CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION MID-LATE WEEK AS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTERN
STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH.
ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/MS
VALLEY VICINITY AHEAD OF A POSITIVE-TILT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT/WARM
SECTOR CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITATIONS...SOME STRONG/PERHAPS
SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
WHILE LITTLE SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SEVERE THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON DAY 6/THURSDAY INTO DAY
7/FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM FL TO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD BE AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE PRECLUDE A 30
PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.
..GUYER.. 10/22/2011
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