SWOD48
SPC AC 230851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REAMPLIFY MID-LATE WEEK PER
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE GENERAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH. THAT SAID...A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DETAILS DOES EXIST AMONGST AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...SUCH THAT THE TIMING/STRENGTH SPECIFICS ARE
IN QUESTION ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE SOUTHERN STREAM/BASAL PORTION
OF THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH.
FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...WHILE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A
COLD FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE TN VALLEY/APPALACHIANS...LITTLE
OR NO SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
INTO DAYS 5-6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AMID AMPLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY...SOME SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ACROSS FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES ESPECIALLY SHOULD A MORE
AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM MATERIALIZE. BUT OVERALL...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND SEEMINGLY LIMITED POTENTIAL AT THIS
JUNCTURE PRECLUDE CONSIDERATION OF ANY 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE
RISK AREAS.
..GUYER.. 10/23/2011
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