SWOD48
SPC AC 260857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
VALID 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS...AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHUNT A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY AROUND DAY 4/SATURDAY...EXCEPT
PERHAPS SOUTH FL. CURRENT HURRICANE RINA /OR EVENTUAL REMNANTS
THEREOF/ COULD ALSO BE A FACTOR FOR SOUTH FL/FL KEYS AROUND DAY
4/SATURDAY...BUT SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY/RAMIFICATIONS ON ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. REFERENCE THE LATEST NHC
FORECASTS FOR DETAILS ON RINA. OTHERWISE...LITTLE OR NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SUGGESTIVE OF A
STRONGER/LOWER LATITUDE AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AROUND DAYS 5-7 SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO GEFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.
SUCH A SCENARIO AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SOME SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW/GUIDANCE VARIABILITY IS QUITE HIGH BY THIS
TIME FRAME. OVERALL...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR DAYS 4-8.
..GUYER.. 10/26/2011
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