SWOD48
SPC AC 290836
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TUE/D4...AS UPPER RIDGING
TAKES PLACE OVER THE ERN STATES AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL LARGE UPPER
TROUGHS DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON TUE/D4...WITH SLY FLOW
RETURNING ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT FAVOR SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ONLY IN THE 40S F.
BY WED/D5...MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS OK AND
TX...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT
CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET MAX TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
DAY....AND DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THUR MORNING.
ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE STRONG ALONG THE COLD FRONT...INSTABILITY
WILL BE VERY WEAK DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PROFILES.
FORECAST GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG MUCAPE
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE NARROWING WITH TIME...GETTING
PINCHED-OFF BETWEEN THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO ERN OK/NERN TX AND
THE EXISTING DRY AIR/SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION. AS A
RESULT...ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ANY SEVERE
THREAT BEING ISOLATED.
WED NIGHT INTO THUR...THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO A RATHER
DRY AIR MASS WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER VERY POWERFUL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS...WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS VERY STRONG TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON FRI/D7
AND INTO SAT/D8. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AS THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL HAVE SENT
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WRN GULF THE DAY BEFORE. SO
AGAIN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BY VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 10/29/2011
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