SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062019
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-062215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...WRN NEB...WRN SWRN SD...FAR NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 062019Z - 062215Z
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...WITH WIND LATER THIS
EVENING. A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER N CNTRL CO INTO
SERN WY AND INTO WRN SD WHERE WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR WAS PUSHING WWD.
HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS REMOVED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INITIALLY
LOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER NRN CO...BUT WITH
TIME...FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
FORCING WILL ALSO BE STRONG NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TREKS NNEWD
INTO SWRN SD THIS EVENING. HERE...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION UPDRAFTS
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.
TO THE S...THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A LINEAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
IN ADDITION TO SOME HAIL. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL
MOISTURE...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A LINE OF CELLS OR A MERGED LINE OF
CELLS IS MOST LIKELY.
..JEWELL.. 10/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 43560172 41990136 40790120 39980122 39800206 39980259
40430285 41340444 41720529 42590583 43650534 44600437
44720330 44440241 44040195 43560172
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