SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181950
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-182045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE TN...S-CNTRL KY...FAR NERN MS...FAR
NWRN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181950Z - 182045Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
COMPACT UPPER IMPULSE EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP IS QUICKLY
SHIFTING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
HAS YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG...WHICH HAS SUPPORTED
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT STRETCHING FROM N-CNTRL AL INTO MIDDLE TN.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ONLY EXHIBIT WEAK VEERING WITH
HEIGHT...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED AT 50 KTS AT 4 KM
AGL PER HTK VWP/ WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
/INCLUDING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/. SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND
REPORTS...BUT MARGINAL POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD RISK FROM MATERIALIZING.
..ROGERS.. 10/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35648764 36358694 37158570 36958511 36058493 34498529
33658573 33178601 32928652 32788747 33098838 33718855
34688854 35358788 35648764
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