SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191946
NCZ000-SCZ000-192115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC AND SERN NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191946Z - 192115Z
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN A NARROW WEDGE OF CLEARING BETWEEN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND A NEAR STATIONARY WARM FRONT
TO THE NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP INTO ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY PRODUCE VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...SBCAPE VALUES
HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG IN A NARROW WEDGE FROM ERN SC
TO SERN NC. WHILE SFC MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT QUITE A BIT OF MID
LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED TODAY. SO...DESPITE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR
ASCENT DUE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO
THE REGION...SHOWERS/STROMS WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM AND SFC-3KM SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 50 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST CELLS.
..LEITMAN.. 10/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35347807 34957878 34817943 34798025 34738089 34338081
33538040 32697995 33077920 34567717 34787687 35057682
35247693 35377705 35467737 35497771 35347807
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