SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230629
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-230730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN TX...ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230629Z - 230730Z
WW 869 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 08Z FOR PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX.
LOW-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT HAS RECENTLY TIGHTENED WITH QLCS E
OF THE CURRENT WW IN NERN TX. BUT HIGHER-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAKER SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMPARED TO AREAS WITHIN/NEAR WW
869. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT
TO THE E OF TX APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.
FARTHER W...MORE INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE
PERSISTED IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE DFW METRO AREA WHERE A STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE EXISTS /AS SAMPLED BY THE DFW VWP/. THIS
SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ATTENDANT
RISKS OF WIND/HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME...MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NET DECREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH A
PROBABLE DIMINISHING OF THE SEVERE THREAT BEYOND 08-09Z.
..GRAMS.. 10/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 33339782 33339681 33259520 33549428 33709380 33639336
32949329 32159363 31829412 31709469 31609602 32079773
32529812 33339782
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