WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 869

WWUS20 KWNS 222036
SEL9
SPC WW 222036
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-230500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY LATE THIS EVE.
LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY UPR 50S TO LWR 60S DEW
POINTS...HAVE COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX. EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIATE
INVOF SWRN/CNTRL OK 22-23Z NEAR A WRMFNT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STORM
NUMBER INCREASE...EXPECT TRANSITION INTO A POSSIBLE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...TRACKING ESE INTO N TX AND POSSIBLY THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY 06-07Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.

...RACY

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