DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010521
SWODY1
SPC AC 010519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE ERN
STATES...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CONUS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NWRN STATES ADVANCES
INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
TO THE LATTER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM NRN MN THROUGH CENTRAL
NEB TO THE GREAT BASIN AT 12Z TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWD THROUGH MUCH OF KS...EXTENDING
FROM ERN WI SWWD THROUGH NRN MO...ERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS REMAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.../MAINLY AFTER 06Z/...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO
BE ELEVATED AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS IT DEVELOPS FROM W-E.

THE SRN EXTENT OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AFTER 02/00Z...WITH 60-90
METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MASS FIELD RESPONSE WILL
RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS W TX AND OK AND A
SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WAA INTO KS. ALTHOUGH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES TROUGH...MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS REGION
WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 250 J PER
KG/ TONIGHT...SUPPORTING A FEW POST FRONTAL TSTMS. THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND WEAK BULK SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

...GREAT BASIN TO WRN CO...
A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND WRN CO
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..PETERS/COHEN.. 11/01/2011

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