SWODY1
SPC AC 011234
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
CA COASTS WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH BASAL PORTION OF MIDLEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO GREAT BASIN.
A RESULTANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH A CORRIDOR
OF HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO CNTRL/ERN HIGH PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER WRN KS AND THEN WWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
GREAT BASIN WILL ACCORDINGLY STRENGTHEN WHILE ADVANCING SEWD.
...CNTRL PLAINS...
A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL
INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY...DESPITE STRONG
DIABATIC WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 02/06-09Z AS SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
COUPLES WITH INCREASING DCVA IN ADVANCE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTENING
TO YIELD A WEAKLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE
800-700 MB LAYER.
...GREAT BASIN...
12Z LKN SOUNDINGS APPEARS TO BE QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS SUSTAINED SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF NV EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE
AVAILABLE DATA...THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE BASED AROUND 600 MB
WITHIN SHALLOW LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDS UPWARD
THROUGH THAT PORTION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WHICH SUPPORTS
CHARGE SEPARATION. GIVEN THAT THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY TODAY --AS MENTIONED ABOVE-- EXPECT SPORADIC LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL
ROCKIES.
..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 11/01/2011
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