SWODY1
SPC AC 020501
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK EWD TODAY
THROUGH KS/OK AND N TX AND SHOULD REACH MO AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY 12Z THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY ORIENTED. THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE NRN PLAINS AS A LARGER TROUGH DIGS SEWD
FROM THE GULF OF AK INTO WRN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NRN
LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN MO TO A SURFACE LOW IN NWRN OK/ERN TX
PANHANDLE AREA AT 12Z TODAY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY /NNE
OF NRN MO/ WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AS IT WILL TEND TO REMAIN GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...THE OK SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ENEWD REACHING SRN MO TONIGHT AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND EXTENDS FROM SERN MO/WRN TN
SSWWD THROUGH SRN LA TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z THURSDAY.
...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO PARTS OF MID MS VALLEY...
AT 12Z TODAY...ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN SRN NEB/NRN KS
GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS THIS POST-FRONTAL
AREA WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT DUE TO LOW LEVEL WAA AND DCVA ALOFT. AS
THE COMPACT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK EWD TODAY...LOW LEVEL
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE EWD WITH THE SYSTEM
AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH EWD EXTENT...EVEN THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO AND NRN AR. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SWD EXTENT
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGESTS SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS
POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL
WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...COASTAL AREAS OF TX...
WARMER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH SWD EXTENT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP
THE AIR MASS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BETWEEN 03/03-06Z...THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WHERE GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR LIFTED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC...AND
GIVEN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS/GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTMS. WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
...COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE OF WA/ORE...
A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LARGE GULF OF AK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF WA/ORE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AND EXTEND
SWWD THROUGH FAR NWRN CA BY 12Z THURSDAY. COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /AROUND -30 C AT 500 MB/ AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE
WA/ORE COASTS WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS.
..PETERS/COHEN.. 11/02/2011
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