SWODY1
SPC AC 031938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT THU NOV 03 2011
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE OR NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EXISTING DAY 1 OUTLOOK. WITH A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT /IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A
TORNADO/ STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...SEE THE PRIOR DISCUSSION AS BELOW.
..GUYER.. 11/03/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT THU NOV 03 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR SAINT LOUIS AS OF MID MORNING WILL PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WEAKEN SLOWLY...AND A NEW LOW WILL FORM
E OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS AN ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL LOW MOVES EWD/ESEWD FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION GIVEN THE OCCLUDED
NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND LIMITED PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO FROPA. OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A MODEST
INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO ERN SC/SRN NC AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60-62 F BY
09-12Z. THE MOISTENING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK INSTABILITY
BASED NEAR THE SURFACE...IN A ZONE OF PRONOUNCED ASCENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT A BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT.
DESPITE MLCAPE OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG...THE VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A LOW RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.
ALONG THE PAC COAST...A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SEWD OVER THE CA COAST. COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL ALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY TO REACH THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF
WA/ORE/NW CA TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL CA COAST OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION.
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