SWODY1
SPC AC 062000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHOWERS/POTENTIALLY SOME
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR/ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
TX INTO OK. GIVEN THAT A CONSIDERABLE CAP /12Z DFW OBSERVED
SOUNDING/ IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE PRESENCE OF NEBULOUS LARGE
SCALE INFLUENCES...SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS UNLIKELY THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. OTHERWISE...AS DESCRIBED BELOW...THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER DARK
/ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/ ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO OK WITH HAIL AS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
...COASTAL CA...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
WEAK/RELATIVELY SHALLOW BUOYANCY...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS SUB-10
PERCENT.
..GUYER.. 11/06/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2011/
...SRN PLAINS...
12Z UPR ANALYSIS INDICATES RETURN FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED 14 DEG C H85
DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE MID-RIO GRANDE VLY. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WCNTRL/CNTRL TX THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE SWRN U.S.
BAND OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT IN A
MODEST WARM CONVEYOR FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE OZARKS. SMALL HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK.
COMPARATIVELY MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER ENEWD INTO SWRN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT /AFT 09Z/. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45 KT SLY LLJ THAT BEGINS
RESPONDING TO LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COINCIDENT WITH MOISTENING PROFILES AOB H85 /MUCAPE 1500-2500 J PER
KG/ . VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 35-40 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY ACHIEVE BRIEF ROTATION YIELDING LARGE
HAIL. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RECENT TREND IN
SLOWER CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION /DELAYED UNTIL AFT 12Z PER 12Z
NAM/...CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW
TO NOT UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK.
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