SWODY1
SPC AC 091916
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST WED NOV 09 2011
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
..SMITH/DARROW.. 11/09/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST WED NOV 09 2011/
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST:
1/ REMOVE THUNDER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
2/ ADD THUNDER PROBABILITIES TO PARTS OF SCNTRL TX/MIDDLE TX COAST.
...DEEP SOUTH...
MAJORITY OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE MS VLY WILL PASS WELL N OF THE REGION THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT. GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY...EXPECT ONLY A ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TIED TO LINES OF SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL AND SE MS.
...SCNTRL TX/MIDDLE TX COAST...
VSB SATL TRENDS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF ACCAS ARCING NWD
ACROSS SW TX WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LVL JET NOSING INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY HAS BEEN ELIMINATED BY THE CDFNT
MOVING OFF THE GULF COAST...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BECOME
ALIGNED WITH MODEST ASCENT TO SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTN/EVE. NO SVR WX IS ANTICIPATED.
...UPR MIDWEST/UPR GRTLKS REGION...
ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SNOW/RAIN BANDS
IMMEDIATELY N/NW OF EVOLVING MID-LVL DRYSLOT PUNCHING NWD INTO SERN
WI/LK MI REGION THIS AFTN. PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
PERCENT...HOWEVER.
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