SWODY1
SPC AC 101952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NO OUTLOOK CHANGES...SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW.
..GUYER.. 11/10/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011/
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 650 AM CST THU NOV 10/
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
TX WILL SHIFT EWD AND REACH PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LEADING THE
TROUGH WILL BE FOUND NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. AS THESE HEIGHT FALLS OVERLAY A LOW-LEVEL FRONT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
RIDE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.
...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
AS LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS IS DRAWN
INTO THE AREA AND LIFTED ATOP THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL TRANSLATE NEWD NEAR THE COAST IN TANDEM WITH THE TRACK OF THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW. STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OFFERED BY THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY
TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A
NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
...GREAT LAKES...
A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /500-MB TEMP AROUND -35C PER
12Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. AS THESE COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERLAY RELATIVELY WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES /MID 40S TO LOWER 50S F
PER BUOY DATA/ OVER PORTIONS OF LAKES MICHIGAN/ERIE/HURON...STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. WHILE
MARGINAL...MLCAPE VALUES PER MODIFIED RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
50-100 J/KG ARE ANTICIPATED...WITH A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CAPE-BEARING
LAYER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL FOR A GENERAL THUNDER
AREA THERE AT THIS TIME.
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