SWODY1
SPC AC 230047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN FAR ERN AL AND PORTIONS OF
GA AND SC...
...ERN AL/GA NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH FAR SERN AL AND WRN
GA THIS EVENING. A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS...REFERENCE WW/S 895 AND 896.
THE STORMS IN AL/GA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ENEWD
OVERNIGHT AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HOWEVER ...THE
MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES/WEAK LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY BRING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TORNADO THREAT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT
TORNADO WATCHES. SINCE THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG...IS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT RISK...BUT ADJUSTED THE RISK AREA SWD TO ACCOUNT
FOR BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY.
FURTHER NORTH INTO NC...STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL YIELD
STRONG DEEP/LOW LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS... ESPECIALLY AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER...STORM MODE LATER TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION AS THE PCPN
CURRENTLY MOVING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IS A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
CURRENT CONVECTIVE MODE...CONFIDENCE OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW. HOWEVER...HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES SHOULD INDIVIDUAL STORMS
MATERIALIZE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
..IMY.. 11/23/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment