SWODY1
SPC AC 120527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN FCST THROUGH
PERIOD...FEATURING TWO RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS...
1. NRN-STREAM TROUGH LOCATED OVER SRN BC...WA AND ORE AT OUTLOOK
TIME...AND FCST TO PIVOT SEWD THEN EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. FEATURE SHOULD REACH ERN SD/ERN NEB AREA BY
13/12Z...PRECEDED BY STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DCVA ALOFT...BUT
INADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR GEN THUNDER RISK.
2. BROAD/NEARLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER PAC HIGH SEAS...OFF CA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT SEWD
AND EWD OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NRN BAJA...CENTER OF WHICH SHOULD MOVE
ASHORE NWRN BAJA AT OR MORE LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER END OF PERIOD.
GREATEST INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SERN CA
COAST...OR INVOF YUM AROUND 13/06Z...BASED ON FCST SOUNDINGS IN
ERN/NERN FRINGES OF ASSOCIATED LOW-MIDLEVEL UVV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR GEN
THUNDER OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 11/12/2011
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