SWODY1
SPC AC 160035
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR EAST TX...PARTS OF
LA...FAR SE AR AND MS...
...LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE ONGOING IN WRN LA IS LOCATED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE SRN END OF THE LINE...THE AIRMASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE
WHERE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS EVENING. WIND
DAMAGE COULD BE THE LESSER OF THE TWO THREATS AS THE LINE MOVES TO
NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE THIS EVENING. IN SPITE OF A DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TN VALLEY...MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
SFC DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70 F ACROSS CNTRL MS BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS IMPROVEMENT OF THE AIRMASS MAY ENABLE THE LINE TO CONTINUE
ENEWD INTO CNTRL MS AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTACT ACROSS LA AND MUCH OF MS BUT
HAVE TRIMMED NRN SECTIONS OF THE SLIGHT ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN MS
WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MUCH LESS UNSTABLE.
..BROYLES.. 11/16/2011
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