DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160555
SWODY1
SPC AC 160554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES AND ERN SEABOARD...

...ERN GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SCNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE
MS VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS A LARGE SPATIAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY ENEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN SEABOARD. A SOMEWHAT NARROW CORRIDOR FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST JUST SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF
A VORTICITY MAX ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT A BAND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z
ACROSS ERN MS AND WRN AL. THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN
AL ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO CAROLINAS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SLIGHT RISK CORRIDOR GRADUALLY INCREASE
MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SLIGHT IS ORIENTED ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE.
THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE WIND DAMAGE AS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES NEWD
ACROSS GA INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED IF A LINEAR
MCS CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHERE LOW-LEVEL AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKER INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

..BROYLES.. 11/16/2011

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