SWODY1
SPC AC 240529
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST WED NOV 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS MOST THE CONUS THANKSGIVING
DAY AS DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE REGION. ONE
AREA WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN AZ INTO SWRN NM FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN
CA/NRN BAJA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG THE
U.S./MEXICAN BORDER AND IT APPEARS A DEEPER MOISTURE FEED WITHIN THE
DOWNSTREAM WARM CONVEYOR WILL ADVECT INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OCCURS THEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE NOTED WITHIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED
WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD ISOLATED TSTMS
COULD EVOLVE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT IMMEDIATELY BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW...PARTIALLY DUE TO EARLIER MOISTENING WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR.
A SECOND SMALL AREA WHERE CONVECTION MAY PROVE ROBUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WILL BE ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WITHIN A POST FRONTAL REGIME WILL ALLOW LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
TO SPREAD ONSHORE AFTER 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BREACH
SUFFICIENTLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.
..DARROW.. 11/24/2011
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