SWODY1
SPC AC 250540
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...
LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE
IT/S ENEWD MOVEMENT INTO NM WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER HEIGHT FALLS
FROM NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE NRN
TROUGH IT APPEARS THE TWO WILL PHASE LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE DAY2.
PRIOR TO THIS PHASING...MOISTENING WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SUCH THAT ELEVATED BUOYANCY
WILL LIKELY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE PROSPECT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE EJECTING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE FROM NM...EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL OK LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG.
FARTHER SOUTH...A NARROW ZONE OF MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY REGION OF SOUTH TX. HERE TOO
THIS REGION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW A FEW NEAR-SFC BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
..DARROW/SMITH.. 11/25/2011
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