SWODY1
SPC AC 040037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT THU NOV 03 2011
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NERN SC THROUGH SERN NC...
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SRN IND SEWD THROUGH
ERN TN WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES SSWWD
THROUGH CNTRL GA INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
THROUGH CNTRL SC. STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS WERE INDICATED ACROSS WRN
SC AS OF 23Z THIS EVENING WHERE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO UPPER DIVERGENCE AND STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET.
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ RESULTING FROM THIS PROCESS WILL ADVECT UPPER
50S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OFFSHORE INTO ERN SC AND SERN NC. THE INLAND
ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE BENEATH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WITHIN MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE
POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE BAND OF
CONVECTION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. THIS ZONE
OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO LATER
TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..DIAL.. 11/04/2011
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