SWODY1
SPC AC 011943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BEING
MADE THIS FORECAST TO THE TWO THUNDER AREAS. A FEW STRIKES REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..GOSS.. 11/01/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NV THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO CO/NRN
NM BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP SWD/SSEWD FROM SE CO TO NE NM THIS EVENING...AND THEN BEGIN
TO MOVE EWD LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED THROUGH TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE
RATES ACCOMPANYING THE GREAT BASIN MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM UT INTO W/NW CO.
OVERNIGHT...STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A 40-50 KT
LLJ...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF AT LEAST 250-500
J/KG BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. INCREASING ASCENT WITH
LOW-LEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION
FOR LIFTED PARCELS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 06-12Z.
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