SWODY1
SPC AC 241233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST THU NOV 24 2011
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 30 N AND 123 W WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
NW MEXICO AND SRN AZ BY EARLY FRIDAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS WAVE...A
PLUME OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD /NEAR 700 MB/ ACROSS NW
MEXICO TOWARD SW NM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MOISTENING COULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE MIDLEVELS AND AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT. A LITTLE FARTHER W INTO SE AZ...MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.
ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NEAR 47 N AND 136 W WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TO WA/ORE LATER
TODAY...AND CONTINUE EWD TO THE NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES IN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE NW ORE AND WA COASTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING....WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL POSE A
RISK FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 11/24/2011
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