Tuesday, November 1, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020054
SWODY1
SPC AC 020052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A FEW TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS SERN UT ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS REGION. ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND ATTENDANT TO DCVA ALOFT WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
YET THIS EVENING OVER SERN UT INTO PARTS OF WRN CO.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ELEVATED
TSTMS LATER TONIGHT /MAINLY AFTER 06Z/ ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
ACTIVITY TENDING TO DEVELOP FROM W-E. LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
SWWD THROUGH IA...NERN-SWRN KS...AND THEN BACKED NNWWD INTO THE CO
ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SERN CO WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH
THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES TONIGHT AS THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVES
SWD. WIND PROFILERS IN SRN KS TO W TX INDICATED THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SLY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES INTO CO/NRN NM. STEEP LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD FROM THE
ROCKIES ALONG AND N OF THE PLAINS FRONT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE UP TO 250-500 J/KG
BASED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. INCREASING ASCENT WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS AND DCVA ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SATURATION FOR LIFTED
PARCELS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TSTMS.

..PETERS.. 11/02/2011

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