SWODY1
SPC AC 041102
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 AM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A DEEP AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THIS MORNING....WHILE AN UPPER LOW TRAVELS EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL YIELD AREAS OF CONCERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
...CAROLINAS...
THE EASTERN UPPER LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NC AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE SC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS NOW ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE GA COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT...BUT A DRY SLOT HAS ROTATED INTO THE AREA AND HAS
RESULTED IN A TEMPORARY LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM SECTOR.
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL COLD POCKET AND AREAS OF DAYTIME
HEATING RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION. WEAK MOISTURE VALUES AND
MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
...CA/AZ INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA...
THE CORE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WA/ORE INTO
CENTRAL CA. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE CA
COAST BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
LIGHTNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
AREAS AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHWEST CO/NORTHWEST NM BEFORE DAYBREAK ON
SAT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
..HART/COHEN.. 11/04/2011
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