Thursday, November 24, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250052
SWODY1
SPC AC 250050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST THU NOV 24 2011

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...

SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SERN AZ/SWRN
NM WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER LOW. WHILE AIR MASS
OVER THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS EVENING IT
APPEARS ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE U.S./MEXICAN
BORDER LATER THIS EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. EVEN SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED.

...PACIFIC NW...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WA/ORE COAST THIS
EVENING. MINIMAL LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED WITHIN POST FRONTAL
CONVECTION THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE PROSPECT FOR MORE THAN ONE
OR TWO STRIKES APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A THUNDER RISK THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 11/25/2011

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