SWODY1
SPC AC 041931
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EXISTING DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...SEE PRIOR
DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR/ASSOCIATED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. IN THE WEST...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST/OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY...WITH TSTMS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS AZ/FOUR CORNERS AREA.
..GUYER.. 11/04/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011/
...ERN CAROLINAS...
H5 TEMPS AROUND MINUS 20 DEG C ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE SERN STATES WILL ENCOUNTER RESIDUAL UPR 50S/LWR 60S SFC
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN. MRGL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLD TSTMS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GULF STREAM.
...CA/AZ INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA...
POTENT PV-ANOMALY SITUATED ALONG SRN FRINGE OF THE DEEP WRN STATES
UPR TROUGH WILL TRAVEL FROM OFF SANTA BARBARA COAST TO AZ OVERNIGHT.
BANDS OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE SRN CA COAST AS
THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FEED. SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL MAY OCCUR IN STRONGER
UPDRAFTS...BUT SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THESE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS ASCENT FOR
FORCING/MOISTENING OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OVER PARTS OF AZ AND ADJACENT
FOUR CORNERS REGION.
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