SWODY1
SPC AC 120045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST FRI NOV 11 2011
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT IS UNDERWAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER MUCH OF NERN
CONUS FOLLOWING DEPARTING/DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH...AND HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR OVER NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING SWRN BC AND
COASTAL PAC NW. BROAD AND NEARLY CUT OFF CYCLONE OFFSHORE CA COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TO SSEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...REMAINING OVER PAC HIGH SEAS...ITS NERN FRINGES SKIRTING
SRN CA COAST. AT SFC...CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS SRN AB
IN ADVANCE OF NWRN MID-UPPER PERTURBATION...WITH SFC TROUGHING SEWD
ACROSS DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...WELL-DEFINED
CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE OVER SERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING SWWD OVER
NRN/WRN GULF...WILL PREVENT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THUNDER
THREAT FROM INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD TO E COAST.
...SRN CA COAST/ISLANDS...
CONTINUING MRGL GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
WAA...FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FROM LOBES OF DCVA
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY. MODIFIED
RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF 200-500 J/KG MUCAPE
IN THIS REGIME...OVER COASTAL/NEAR-OFFSHORE WATERS...DURING 05Z-10Z
TIME FRAME. INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY WITH INLAND
EXTENT.
..EDWARDS.. 11/12/2011
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