SWODY2
SPC AC 011724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION LATE. MEANWHILE...A SECOND/LARGER TROUGH WILL DIG
SEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK AND INTO WRN NOAM THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS AND ENEWD INTO SERN MO LATE -- ROUGHLY ALONG THE AXIS
WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIE. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
ENEWD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND INTO THE WRN GULF LATE. MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT
-- ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING WRN NOAM -- WILL MOVE
INLAND...CROSSING THE PAC NW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS A SWATH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM KS AND VICINITY EWD INTO MO AND ADJACENT AREAS
-- MAINLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AS WARM ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH HIGHLY-ELEVATED CAPE TO YIELD SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS. CAPE IS HOWEVER PROGGED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE
THAN SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL.
IN THE PAC NW...COOL AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING
ONSHORE WILL SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALONG THE COAST -- WITHIN LARGER AREA OF SHALLOWER CONVECTION.
..GOSS.. 11/01/2011
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