SWODY2
SPC AC 020408
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT TUE NOV 01 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A TIGHT UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM MO/AR EWD INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY REGION BY 00Z...WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS BY
FRI MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL
ALSO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.
TO THE W...A LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COASTAL STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW TRAVELING SWD JUST OFF THE
COAST. CONVERGENCE WITH THIS LOW ALONG WITH COOL LAPSE RATE PROFILES
MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK AND LOW TOPPED AND MAINLY
OVER THE WATER OR VERY NEAR THE COAST.
...KY/TN INTO WRN CAROLINAS...
A GENERALLY DRY AND UNFAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH ONLY A NARROW PLUME OF
50S F DEWPOINTS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AND
WEAKEN OVER THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES...INSTABILITY WILL BE SO WEAK THAT EVEN GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE ISOLATED. THE BEST CHANCE OF A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARS TO BE BENEATH THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE A
COLD POCKET WILL MAXIMIZE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
..JEWELL.. 11/02/2011
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