SWODY2
SPC AC 031657
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT THU NOV 03 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON FRIDAY. IN THE EAST...A CLOSED/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT OFFSHORE
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
IN THE WEST...AS A STRONG PACIFIC UPPER JET DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INLAND/EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHWEST STATES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL SOCAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS MAINLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ/FOUR CORNERS VICINITY.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS/NC OUTER BANKS...
SIMILAR TO THE SCENARIO AS DESCRIBED WITHIN THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK...A LIMITED SEVERE RISK MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/OUTER BANKS. THE
EARLY DAY TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO...ALONG WITH WEAK
BUOYANCY/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS...ARE SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL RISK. HOWEVER...SOME DAMAGING WIND AND/OR TORNADO
RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO THE WARM SECTOR SHIFTING OFFSHORE
IN CONCERT WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 11/03/2011
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