SWODY2
SPC AC 041728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AHEAD OF A DIGGING POLAR JET/SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
COAST...A BASAL/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD/TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN SPITE OF APPRECIABLE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
CURRENT TRAJECTORIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS ASIDE FROM CURBING THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL.
THAT SAID...MODEST MOISTURE/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTMS SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR COASTAL NORTHERN CA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT
COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED SUCH THAT A 10
PERCENT TSTM DELINEATION IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 11/04/2011
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