SWODY2
SPC AC 250650
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY WITH THE RATE OF EWD TRANSLATION...THE
ECMWF SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN.
NEVERTHELESS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AT 26/12Z SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS EWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING S/SWWD FROM THE
CYCLONE TO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD SWEEP SEWD AND REACH THE MIDWEST TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING ON SAT.
...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THE CNTRL STATES TROUGH
BREEDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT.
STILL MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
PRIOR TO FROPA BASED ON OBSERVED PW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF...WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH
NEAR 60 F OVER SERN TO DEEP S TX ACROSS LA TO CNTRL MS...TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /ESPECIALLY POOR E OF
TX/...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE MEAGER WITH MUCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 500
J/KG ALONG THE COAST /WEAKER INLAND/...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION. STILL...FORCED ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SERN/DEEP S TX SAT MORNING/AFTERNOON AND EWD
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST SAT NIGHT.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SWLYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N/NW OF THE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT...WITH COMPARATIVELY STRONGER AND MORE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL SLYS IN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER WOULD PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO FROM THE SABINE
RIVER TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS/NAM/SREF WOULD
SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST MODELS WILL MAINTAIN A 5 PERCENT TOTAL
SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 11/25/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment