Saturday, November 26, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260632
SWODY2
SPC AC 260631

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NCEP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER ECMWF/CMC
RUNS OVER THE EVOLUTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE WRN GULF COAST ON SUN
MORNING. THE SRN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD TRANSFORM INTO A
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED INVOF LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY MON. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND CNTRL GULF COAST.

...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH...
MODERATELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON D1 SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED IN BOTH
QUALITY AND SPATIAL EXTENT BY SUN MORNING. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60 F WILL BECOME NARROWLY CONFINED
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL AL SWD. WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC
/ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIALLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING/ RESULTING IN
MINIMAL BUOYANCY N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...LOW-LEVEL
SLYS AOA 30 KTS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR MORE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE. LIGHTNING PRODUCTION SHOULD BE SPORADIC N OF A JAN TO
MGM LATITUDE...WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 11/26/2011

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