Sunday, November 27, 2011

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270643
SWODY2
SPC AC 270641

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2011

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE CONSISTENT IN THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z/MON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN
FURTHER AS IT REACHES THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...AND TAKE ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE-TILT BY EARLY TUE AS AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET
EJECTS THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE INVOF NRN GA MON MORNING SHOULD TRACK NWD TOWARDS THE OH
VALLEY...WITH AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD ACROSS GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

...PORTIONS OF THE GA/SC/NC COASTAL PLAINS...
DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
DCVA/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASE AND FASTER MID-LEVEL SLYS
OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN COMBINATION WITH INTENSIFYING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A CONVECTIVE BAND WILL LIKELY PROGRESS NEWD
FROM ERN GA INTO ERN NC MON EVENING/NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 60-65 F AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5-5.5 C/KM WILL
HAMPER THE POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND RESULT IN ONLY VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 250 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
LIGHTNING COVERAGE MAY BE SPORADIC AT BEST...LOW-LEVEL S/SELYS AOA
40 KTS WITHIN THE STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS A LOW-END
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND.

..GRAMS.. 11/27/2011

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