SWODY2
SPC AC 251650
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2011
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE DAY...APPROACHING THE MS RIVER BY SUN MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM A GREAT
LAKES LOW AT 00Z. FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...WILL INTERACT WITH NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
ENCOMPASSING THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
...SERN TX...LA...SRN MS AND AL...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX EARLY SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY BE POOR...WITH WEAK LI VALUES AND MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
250-500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG AND PERSISTENT FORCING...AS
WELL AS MODESTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW
BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ATTENDANT WIND THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A SECONDARY AREA OF POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER ERN LA INTO MS IN A ZONE
OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CORE. MODELS INDICATE THIS NWD ADVANCEMENT OF WARMTH AND
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL AGAIN BE RELATIVELY WARM WITH
LITTLE VERTICAL ACCELERATION POTENTIAL DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...THIS AREA BEARS WATCHING AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION.
..JEWELL.. 11/25/2011
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