SWODY3
SPC AC 020620
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A LEAD TROUGH WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON FRI...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ERN STATES WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER.
MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SWD INTO SWRN
STATES...AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION
INTENSIFYING OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...AND
THUS...NO INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ONE AREA THAT MAY SEE SOME STORMS WILL OVER MUCH OF NRN
AZ. HERE...SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AND A COLD
FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG
AND N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY INTENSE...AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR EVEN AWAY FROM STORMS DUE TO
MECHANICAL MIXING. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LOW.
..JEWELL.. 11/02/2011
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