SWODY3
SPC AC 260734
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...SOUTHEAST...
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED INVOF LOWER MS VALLEY AT
12Z/MON...SPREAD BETWEEN ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CMC RUNS IS VERY LARGE WITH THE DETAILED
EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST ON D3. THIS BREEDS RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT KINEMATIC FEATURES AS WELL
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMBIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK BUOYANCY COULD DEVELOP
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GA TO NC. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION/...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..GRAMS.. 11/26/2011
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