SWOD48
SPC AC 040821
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT FRI NOV 04 2011
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
MON/D4...WHILE SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX/OK...HIGHER END THREAT APPEARS LOWER THAN
WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NEUTRAL
TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ENEWD FROM
SRN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...
RESULTING IN ONLY WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. ALSO...ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE OK/TX REGION...
STRONG DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PCPN...AND CONSEQUENT WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE LOCATED AND MORE
HEATING IS POSSIBLE...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR A 30% SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA.
TUE/D5...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MORE LIKELY AS THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS
TO LIFT NEWD...BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED...AND AIDS IN DEEPENING OF
SURFACE LOW. THE SPEED AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER WAVE VARIES ON THE
MREF RUNS AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS. USED A COMPROMISE AMONGST
THE VARIOUS MODELS FOR INCLUDING A 30% SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA.
THE MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THE EVENT IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE
WAVE EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT AND SHOULD BE BETTER RESOLVED IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS.
WED/D6...UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE OH/WRN TN VALLEYS. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...TOO MUCH VARIANCE IN THE MODELS TO CONSIDER A SEVERE AREA
ATTM.
THU/D7 AND FRI/D8...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EWD...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
..IMY.. 11/04/2011
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